Fig. 01
The driver-based model
Three-statement · forecast




Assumptions · scenario engine01 / 05
- Problem
- A forecast nobody trusts is a forecast nobody uses. Assumptions buried in hardcodes, no way to test a decision before committing to it.
- Approach
- Ten linked tabs built off an explicit driver tree, where every output traces to an assumption you can argue with. Scenario and sensitivity layers sit on top, not bolted in later.
- Shows
- Modeling rigor, auditability, and structure someone else can pick up and extend.
- My take
- The model is often considered the most “boring” part of any effort. In truth, it's the single most foundational piece; it has to support the entire effort. To me, a model must be clean, scalable, efficient, and accountable. Every dot to every i, every t crossed. You should know where your information is coming from and why it's there.

